Catholic countries, like the Catholic Church itself, being utterly conservative can live for many years without a change. The World is moving around them but they refuse to change. A climate of crisis slowly develops in them, but they remain aloof to it. It is only when they fall in a state of deep crisis that they decide to change. The change is then abrupt and radical.
A new pope and a new orthodoxy will emerge virtually from nowhere. I am confident this phenomenon will be repeated in Portugal within the nex few years. Let me start with the pope. One of the few things that can be said for sure about the prime-minister that will operate radical reforms in the country and will put it again on a growth path is that it will be a man. Popes are always men, never women. He will not be a young man, as popes are never young.
At present, he is largely hidden in the population, in the sense that he is not part of the political system. He has made his career outside of politics, he never benefited from the system. Most likely he will come from university as academics are those who most resemble priests. Actually, they are the direct descendants of priests.
The new orthodoxy will be conservative and Catholic and the population will give this man almost absolute powers to implement it. He will be able to implement in one year reforms that could not be made over the last two or three decades. He will change radically the constitution and will reform the state practically at will. Justice and education will be his first targets. The weight of government in society will fall drastically and so will the number of public sector employees. He will implement profound economic reforms with a nationalistic character; some protectionism is to be expected; the resurrection of a national currency is not to be excluded; there will be ample room for free initiative, subject to Government supervision.
What about social protests? There will be a few. The population will deal with them for the most part, opposing the protesters. Only in a few cases the police will be called upon to stop the protesters. There will be no grounds for rational discussion or negotiation. Reforms and drastic changes in institutions and society will come directly from the authority of this man and his ministers. Everything will be based on the faith the population puts on him to restore justice, order, authority and prosperity. For Catholic nations, Portugal chiefly among them, when they decided to change, they always did it based on faith, rarely, if ever, based on reason.
A new pope and a new orthodoxy will emerge virtually from nowhere. I am confident this phenomenon will be repeated in Portugal within the nex few years. Let me start with the pope. One of the few things that can be said for sure about the prime-minister that will operate radical reforms in the country and will put it again on a growth path is that it will be a man. Popes are always men, never women. He will not be a young man, as popes are never young.
At present, he is largely hidden in the population, in the sense that he is not part of the political system. He has made his career outside of politics, he never benefited from the system. Most likely he will come from university as academics are those who most resemble priests. Actually, they are the direct descendants of priests.
The new orthodoxy will be conservative and Catholic and the population will give this man almost absolute powers to implement it. He will be able to implement in one year reforms that could not be made over the last two or three decades. He will change radically the constitution and will reform the state practically at will. Justice and education will be his first targets. The weight of government in society will fall drastically and so will the number of public sector employees. He will implement profound economic reforms with a nationalistic character; some protectionism is to be expected; the resurrection of a national currency is not to be excluded; there will be ample room for free initiative, subject to Government supervision.
What about social protests? There will be a few. The population will deal with them for the most part, opposing the protesters. Only in a few cases the police will be called upon to stop the protesters. There will be no grounds for rational discussion or negotiation. Reforms and drastic changes in institutions and society will come directly from the authority of this man and his ministers. Everything will be based on the faith the population puts on him to restore justice, order, authority and prosperity. For Catholic nations, Portugal chiefly among them, when they decided to change, they always did it based on faith, rarely, if ever, based on reason.
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