my guess

I have never been a member of a political party and never occupied any political position in my life. This makes me feel some kind of a semi-ignorant outsider regarding the intricacies of democratic party politics, something for which I have no taste at all.

Since I have lost my faith in the benefits of democracy when applied to a Catholic country, I have no preference for any one of the candidates who today run for the presidency of PSD. But I have a guess, and my guess is that Manuela Ferreira Leite will win by a comfortable margin.

The reason is that when times are tough people tend to return to those values of their culture which they know almost by instinct are essential to their survival and a prerequisite for their prosperity. One of such critical values in the Portuguese, Catholic culture is authority. Among all the candidates, I sense that Manuela Ferreira Leite in view of her career, even her age, is best placed to pass an image of authority.

I would like to point out that I do not believe she will make a difference for the country. But I do believe she will make a difference for her party, a party which, under the leadership of any other of the candidates, would tend to disaggregate rapidly.